July 20, 2003

Sharpen your prediction pencils

From Bush Predicts That His Tax Cuts Will Soon Produce More Jobs:

The White House this week projected a record $455 billion budget deficit for this year and $475 billion for next year, which the president's aides attributed largely to a drop in tax revenue due to the weak economy and additional spending for the war on terrorism.

Okay, for now they're predicting a $475 billion for next year. Of course in February they predicted a $300 billion deficit for this year and look how valid that was. So: what's your prediction of the actual deficit for next year? Bonus points for predicting the percentages by which their forecasts will rise!

Myself, based on zero economic knowledge, I'd say $700 billion. It's a nice even number.

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